The Diminishing Value of Dining Out
Published Sept. 18, 2025
Saying it out loud
We have to be honest, there’s a very serious problem to face in Chicago restaurants. High operating costs, high food costs, increasing labor costs, and a clientele that is coming under the sneaking suspicion that going out just isn’t worth it anymore. This is obviously not the only sentiment floating around but it’s one creeping in from the edges on review platforms and social media. Many Americans are revising their budgets just the same as restaurant owners with the price of things.
The outlandish answer is that both may actually be right. This isn’t to sound like some kind of couple’s therapist.
You can’t exactly break out your P&L at the table to explain yourself **. That being said it’s hard not to bring it up in explaining restaurant-enomics. Speaking hospitably, your financial worries are not for the guest except as reflected in your pricing. Most customers don’t understand commercial leases, cash on delivery, & paying off your deck ovens and fryers. They mock your livelihood and ability to pay your employees when lamenting your prices. To play off that couple’s therapist simile, it’s an emotionally imbalanced relationship built on financial incentive.
Because of these economic & emotional realities it’s very difficult to see things from the cutomers’ POV. It might be easy to say, “that’s just big city prices” when talking about a $30 half chicken being standard at a sit down restaurant[1,2,3]. This is Chicago, after-all. This statement is double edged; we do not have the inflated buying power of LA or New York City. Necessity by economics does not equate to value in front of a customer.
“All professions are a conspiracy against the laity.”
Everyone knows they can eat at home cheaper. The question is what variables and value you appeal to in your equation for guests to justify the spend.
I mentioned the complicated field of consumer rationale in “Tip Credit and Labor Solutions” and we’re here to go into this minefield to define value. For our purposes value lives in 2 worlds simultaneously; Concrete & Complex.
Concrete is obviously measurable. This answers physical needs and logistical solutions; it’s 1am & I’m hungry, I don’t have to clean dishes, they have a smoker & time to cook brisket for 14 hours, they can feed a 100 people, I can’t.
This can even boil down to flavor and preference. “They make the best burger I have ever had.” [4]
Complex is value that is determined by the fuzzy '“logic” of the consumer. The way this is done varies from person to person. Maybe someone thinks a bartender is cute so they stop for Happy Hour 3 times a week; the space attracts potential business connections or great bar conversations. Maybe it’s even just a great place to be seen. Social media credit for the kids and a nice steak for dad.
Revenue plateaus and profitability challenges become hard questions to what value we bring to the table in both of these interpretations. While I am biased to concrete value, both have demonstrable appeal to different kinds of customers and form your brand identity. The “conspiracy” of our profession is leveraging these values and using them to grow revenue.
Join the conspiracy
It’s a little late to change your whole concept and menu, unless you’re a startup reading this. But I implore you to sit down and use these two metrics to classify your menu items.
The Croissant Measurement
Have to Gets
Croissants are delicious, and tedious. Consumers like to buy them because it is way less hassle than laminating dough for something that only has a couple day, peak shelf life. It’s an incredible product because it’s actually easier to make and sell at scale than it is for personal use. How do your menu items measure against the mighty croissant?
Restaurants can improve sales mix and velocity by catering to this metric. Costs are far more easily accepted when it’s something consumers will not or cannot do at home. Mozzarella sticks or wings with ranch sell so well not just because it’s the Midwest; no one wants to fry this stuff in their own home. Roll and freeze cheese or compare those store brands? Forget it!
Have to gets are the second, and often rebuked metric. What is that anomalous sales item that shows up? The dressing or dip that people want to order in bulk [5,6]. The sandwich that people order inordinately as an appetizer at your pizza place. It can be hard to accept that people aren’t there for what you think is the star. Your grandmother’s sauce recipe is important, but if your sandwich is getting people in the door, find a way to make it more profitable and more approachable. Four sandwiches and a small pie for a 4 top should be good money. If it’s not, make it so.
Don’t have an item like this? Develop one. When two people decide to go out for Thai food do you think the place that wins is the one with 15 acceptable appetizers, or that one that has the amazing Green Curry Arancini?
This is not an easy process. I do not recommend reckless experiments or what I like to call the “Hipster overhaul”. Designing a menu solely out of high croissant measure can appear disjointed and contribute huge labor overhead behind food costs. There is something to be said about enough menu width to cover related or common desires for diners not attracted by your highlights.
A synthetic have to get is cliche and hinged entirely on marketing. It also often creates more problems than it’s worth. The real strength of these items is that the market has discovered it as a high value item and a core part of your experience. This is the reason many owners don’t actually like to embrace them. You have to admit that something else is the favorite child.
The organic way to create an item like this is to eliminate one bottom tier performer and replace it with something you’re excited about. In rotating poor items off your menu, you do yourself a favor and you absorb the risk gradually. Don’t fall into the trap of reading the trend wrong either. A new item may be a hit, but it might not be your co-opting have to get. You can even engineer your way into a menu section of 5 really good performers. If this happens, stop tinkering. Move onto a new menu section if you’re looking for that “Golden Ticket”.
Final word here, and addressing those asterisks by “breaking out the P&L”. Some of you may have a bitter taste about the Have to Get metric in a restaurant that has a strong core item and branding. You are right. This item can and should be your main, but sometimes it isn’t. It can also be a reflection of a poorly designed menu or neighborhood needs/desires that didn’t line up with opening diligence. Don’t be afraid to say your star is your star and look for ways to support it.
An upcoming article is Dodo Pizza[7,8]. They do more than break out their P&L for customers, they operate with full transparency. They live stream the kitchens, publish their recipes with weights and measures and openly publish financials. Why? Find out when I write about it.
Sources & additional reading
Wing Stop Ranch, more of a case study than a link